The State of the Stock(inette) Market: February 25th-March 10th

So, as you might have guessed from previous posts, I'm a big old nerd.  Most of my college career was focused on the quantitative analysis of ethnographic, anthropological, and linguistic data (told you I was a nerd), and it was inevitable that this would eventually bleed over into my work in the knitting world.  Special thanks go to my friend Sarah for the final kick in the butt a few weeks ago to get this started; after a conversation in which she described my ambitions as "wanting to be the knitting Nate Silver," I knew I had to pursue my interest further!

For the past couple weeks, I've been working on a project that I hope will prove beneficial and interesting to other knitting designers, people in the industry, and just plain old statistics nerds like myself.  I've always been interested in the numbers of the knitting world, and there's a wealth of raw data available on Ravelry--so I thought, why not combine the two?  The Stock(inette) Market is the result!

My method has been simple: ideally twice a day, ideally 12 hours apart (ideally, because I am human after all), I take a look at the first page of one Ravelry's search algorithms, Hot Right Now.  There are 48 patterns on the first page, representing the patterns that are getting the most attention at that time on Ravelry.  Within those 48 patterns, I've broken down my analysis into five different classifications: Garment Type, Fabric Type, Yarn Type, Color, and whether or not the item is on a model.  After collating all this information every two weeks, I'll present an analysis of where things stand in  knitting design in that timeframe, and how it compares to previous analyses.  With this information, I hope to get a sense of where trends are shifting in the knitting world, thus enabling myself and other designers to best use the resources available to us and further make our way in the industry.  (God, the academic language, it just comes right back, doesn't it?)

I'm definitely interested in as much feedback as possible; are there further analyses you'd like to see? Things you'd change? I'm personally thinking about splitting a few garment categories further down into their component parts (neck accessories is the big one I'd like to split, but that gets into very semantic territory), and am open to further discussion.  I've also taken screenshots of the page each time I've accessed the data, and so would be able to go back and look into things further.  I'm interested in eventually incorporating knit vs. crochet, yarn weight, yardage, date published, price, and a few other factors, but I'm also trying to be realistic about the time commitment! I'll most definitely take into consideration any suggestions, though, and welcome them.

Without further ado, then, here's the first two weeks of The Stock(inette) Market!

Note that this chart is an incomplete view of all the patterns that were on HRN--this represents only the garment types that averaged more than one appearance per data collection event.  Not pictured: toys, men's, kid's, mitts, mittens/gloves, dresses, jewelry, vests, ponchos, or unmentionables.  It's worthwhile to note that there was a spike in vests starting on the 6th and continuing through the 10th, partly due to a number of them in the most recent Knitty and the release of Splitstone.  Also spiking over the last few days were ponchos from various sources, which indicates that there was either a popular forum post or blog post on the topic. (EDIT: dergugelhupf wrote in the comments that there was indeed a forum post in For the Love of Ravelry by someone talking about ponchos with sleeves, or "swonchos" [shudder].  That would definitely explain the spike in ponchos!)

On those garment types that do appear on the graph, neck accessories (scarves, shawls, and wraps) are still incredibly strong, following a trend that's been going for at least three years at this point.  There was a large spike in the last week due to the release of Quince & Co.'s Scarves Etc. 2013, a collection of 17 scarves, shawls, and cowls.   Garments took a bit of a backseat due to this spike and dropped accordingly.  Homegoods, hats, and socks remained relatively steady.

Fabric type is determined by what I feel to be the prevailing motif of the item.  Lace continues strong, a trend that started right about when shawls did.  Textured knits, however, ranging from simple garter stitch to slip stitches and knit-purl combinations, climbed over the weeks due to a strong presence in the Q&C Scarves, Etc. 2013.  Colorwork (defined as anything with more than one color, be it stripes, stranding, intarsia, colorblocking, and so on) rose steadily, but didn't have a huge presence in either Knitty or Q&C.  I'm interested to see where that one goes! Cables and stockinette were steady in the background, with some popular and well-loved patterns (the Featherweight cardigan and Aidez, for example) staying on the front page consistently. 

Yarn type is a pretty interesting illustration that solid and semi-solid (i.e. kettle-dyed) yarns are still standing tall, though there were some big spikes in 2- or 3-color projects throughout the weeks.  There is an almost direct shift between solids and semi-solids when Q&C's Scarves, Etc. met Knitty, which came out a few days later; the semi-solids were definitely very well represented in this issue of Knitty.  Tweed, variegateds, and self-striping yarns remained steady, with longstanding favorites such as Hitchhiker, Storm Mountain, and Wingspan appearing most every day.

 

Color has been one of the most interesting things to track over the last two weeks; as you can see from the graph, it was an incredibly diverse selection every time.  Neutrals made a strong showing, with a spike in grey on the first day and a steady climb in brown and white/off-white over the weeks.  Red also climbed, but wasn't a large portion of either Knitty or Q&C. Alternately, green started off strong, but dropped steadily over the two weeks.  Other colors remained relatively steady, and have me interested to see where these will go in the long term.  Are color trends indeed seasonal?

The last option I explored was whether or not the item was modeled by a person.  Most discussions of how best to photograph your patterns encourage doing so on a person, but approximately 1/5-1/3 of patterns were without a human model.  Quite a number were pictured on a dressform or similar set-up, however, so that might be something I track in the future.  An interesting aside is the dips below the trendline on the weekends; far fewer patterns were modeled during those times.  Something to keep an eye on!

So, to sum up, shawls/scarves/wraps and lace remain strong, with a rise in 2 or more color patterns and texture.  Semi-solids and solids still rule the yarn market, partly thanks to the Quince & Co. Scarves, Etc. 2013 and the most recent Knitty.  Green is down, and reds and neutrals are up.  Where do you think things will go in the next few weeks?