Neck accessories retained 46% of the market, the same percentage as last time. Cardigans and pullovers dropped a small amount, but homegoods, cowls, and socks gained slightly. This makes sense in terms of what we saw last time; the most recent issue of Twist Collective had many garments, and there were fewer of those represented this time around. The patterns from the Interweave Knits Summer preview are slowly trickling onto the first page as we speak; from what I can gather so far, industry pubs tend to favor garments, so we'll see what the beginning of the next edition looks like for those. Also of note is that vests dropped off the list of those pattern types averaging over 1 hit per data collection (averaging instead just .21); instead, toys took their place this time around with the continued presence of the Happypotamus. I would have expected vests to do better as we transition into Northern Hemisphere summer, so it'll be something to keep an eye on.
In garment type, all but neck accessories showed a steady inertia or slight decline; neck accessories continued to climb along the same rate as they followed last time. This brings neck accessories back up to about where they stood at the end of March, before the major spike and decline following the Romi Hill Easter egg hunt. It will be interesting to see if they continue to climb over the summer months or drop again soon.
Of note also is that the spikes present in this graph are not the result of single publications. On April 27th, for example, publication dates for shawls ranged from brand-new Knitty Surprises from the Spring/Summer issue (Brenda Dayne's Now in a Minute) to back to Knitty Spring 2009 (Elizabeth Freeman's Aeolian). Similarly, April 29th's spike in cardigans had examples with publication dates ranging from earlier that day to November 2012 (Serra by Laura Aylor), to September 2009 (Andrea Rangel's The Dude). While I don't intend to compensate in my data for things such as the Harlot Effect (i.e. if a famous knitter such as the Yarn Harlot or SouleMama blogs about a pattern, it shoots to the top of the list) or magazine publicity, I do think completely organic results such as these can be very interesting and telling about the underlying trends.
Fabric type also followed the path we've seen previous, with lace continuing strong and gaining slightly over the weeks. All others dropped a small amount, with a spike in stockinette projects occurring organically in the middle of the period. Cables saw small a small spike corresponding with the release of Cookie A's Jazz Collection and the Quince & Co. Socks book one, as the popular patterns from each utilized cables in their construction.
Modeled garments climbed over the two weeks, with rises at the latter end corresponding to the trickle of Interweave Knits patterns and the aforementioned sock collections. True to previous discussions, modeled garments dropped slightly over the weekends, and there was a slight organic rise in dressforms in the middle of the period.
All in all, an interesting couple of weeks for "pure" data; a continued interest in neck accessories, lace, and cool colors, with a general rise in other accessories over garments. Is this a trend for the Northern Hemisphere summer, or something larger? What do you think?
I also wanted to note a couple things on what further I hope to work on over the coming months. I've had many requests to track number of projects for patterns that have been on HRN, and after trying to formulate a way to do so, I regretfully have to say that it's just not possible. When things are moving slowly, probably about fifteen patterns will change between 12 hour periods. When things are volatile, around thirty can change. That's between roughly fifty and eighty patterns a day to look at, which equates to probably about a thousand over the two week period, at a low estimate. There's no way to easily glance over them for project data. I'm working on learning the API key so that perhaps, in future, I can revisit this, but at present, it's just not feasible timewise.
However, based on recent conversations I've had with a few friends and commenters, I would like to start thinking in broader terms. When do we know a trend is on its way out or is completely done? What factors do I consistently see that create a presence on the first page? How do industry and self-publications play against each other? I'd like to explore these in further detail, and hope to bring those thoughts to you as their own posts, essays, or articles. Stay tuned!