Tuesday, July 16, 2013

The Stock(inette) Market: June 18th-July 14th

Would you look at that--I think we're actually caught up on the Stock(inette) Market! There were some amazing publications this past month, with some interesting and unexpected results in the numbers.  Let's take a look!
One note on last time's Average Percentage: I had mistakenly based the chart on only those categories that had averaged more than 1 appearance per data collection, rather than factoring in an "other" for the remaining categories.  It's been amended to reflect this; the dominoes in this fell most on neck accessories, dropping them from 51% to 47%.  While they still dominate this month, they have a slightly smaller percentage at 46%.  Cardigans have crept up from 14 to 15%, due to a heavy presence in many of the publications this month.  There were also more categories represented this time around, with men's patterns making the cut-off for the first time due to the release of Brooklyn Tweed's Men's collection and Martin Storey's book with Rowan, Pioneer.

Neck accessories had some major peaks throughout the month, corresponding both to the release of several publications (in the beginning of the month, Grace Anna Farrow and Kelbourne Woolen's collaboration on their new lace-weight yarn Meadow, Allium; and at the end of June and beginning of July, the release of the latest patterns in Romi Hill's Seven Small Shawls, Year 3) and organically (the spike on June 27th).  There were also small organic spikes near the end of the month as well.  One of these occurred due to Maylin's decision to turn Wingspan into a for-sale pattern instead of a free download; it and many of its descendants (and a few copycats) climbed back to the first page.

Cardigans and pullovers also had a few major spikes, occurring with the release of Knitscene's Fall 2013 preview and the spate of Rowan releases the first week in July (Rowan 54, Summer Selects Online Collection, Autumn Knits, and Pioneer), all of which were heavily geared towards garments.  BT Men's was also geared towards garments, and caused the obvious spike in men's garments seen around July 10th.  While both cardigans and pullovers were well represented throughout the month, the former rose as time went on, while the latter fell.  All other categories remained relatively steady.

Yarn type remained consistent with what we've seen in the past; semi-solids dominated, with a big spike in late June helped along by the release of Amy Miller's collaboration with the Plucky Knitter, The Little Collection.  There were also smaller organic spikes throughout the month, tied to Knitscene and Romi Hill's new collection.  Solids had a large spike with Rowan's Summer Selects and a smaller one with Carol Feller's new collection, Among Stones, but otherwise dropped over the month.  There was a small spike of tweed during the BT Men's collection, and two- and three-color projects had prominence as stranded colorwork in the Rowan releases and as stripes in Amy Miller's collection.  Variegated yarns were not present in large numbers at all this month.

The modeled categories remained steady, with modeled garments seeing a large spike due to Knitscene at the end of June and the Rowan releases around the 4th of July.  They had a sharp organic drop at the end of the time period, however, corresponding with a rise in dressforms.

 Fabric type was wildly variable this time around, with no clear winner.  While lace has been continually and clearly dominant in the past, this time there were major spikes in texture (Autumn Knits, Pioneer, and BT Men's), colorwork (Rowan 54 and Summer Selects), and stockinette (The Little Collection, BT Men's).  There were lace spikes to correspond with Knitscene Fall and Romi Hill's release, and an organic spike at the very end of the time period, but lace fell overall.  There was also a slight drop in colorwork once the Rowan patterns made their way off the front page.  Cables rose steadily, with spikes occurring for Knitscene and BT Men's; as we're seeing the first of the fall publications, we can surmise that these may be rising to fit seasonal trends.

Colors again were incredibly variable, with major spikes in reds (organic), greys (Rowan and BT Men's), and blues (BT Men's).  Red did drop sharply after its major spike at the end of June, but rose again organically at the very end of the month.  Green, white, yellow, and black rose slightly, and purple, brown, and orange stayed constant. 

Overall, a very volatile month--we had what seems to be the tail end of the light, lacy spring patterns and the very first of the textural and cabled fall patterns.  It will be interesting to see how this develops over the next month!

Monday, July 1, 2013

Stock(inette) Market: May 20th to June 17th

Hello again! Thank you for your patience as I get back in the saddle after my trip to Iceland! You're in for an awesome version of the Stock(inette) Market today as we work through a whole month's worth of data.  This marks the beginning of my transition to monthly posts; this will help us see the data in a larger picture, and also give me a little bit of a breather between posts.  We've got a little more catching up to do after this one, so there'll be one more post in a couple weeks, and then it'll be every month from then on out!

Before we start, I have to send a special shout out to Annika Barranti and Dianna Walla for their help in my absence; these awesome ladies made sure that all the data was recorded so there wouldn't be a huge gap in statistics.  Please join me in thanking them! (Pssst--Annika's got a sale going on one of her adorable patterns (coupon code: POSY50) and Dianna just put out a gorgeous tee.  Just saying.)

Neck accessories continue to be popular over this month, capturing 47% of the Hot Right Now real estate. There was a bit of a shakeup in the other categories--surprisingly, given an assumption that they'd be popular in the Northern hemisphere summer, vests have been replaced by toys.  Cowls and socks also took a larger percentage of the average than previously.  Cardigans and pullovers remain about the same.

There were some wild variations throughout the month in garment type, but most items remained steady overall. The beginning of the month saw mostly organic interest in patterns, with few major publications or sales.  While the few promotions during that time period (a sale from Thea Colman's BabyCocktails and a promotion by Brenda Burrell) bumped pullovers and cardigans, and shawls respectively, the biggest swing occurred at the end of May with the publication of Ashore with Friends, a collection by Cecily Glowik MacDonald that featured a number of sweaters.  This caused a spike in cardigans and a drop in neck accessories.  There was a further spike in sweaters and cowls in the first week in June due to the anniversary celebration of The Plucky Knitter, which featured sales and collections showcasing her yarns.  The end of the month saw a tick back up in neck accessories, which was a bit contrary to the big publication of the time, Knitty First Fall 2013, which only had three neck accessories this time around.  Other notable spikes include a kid's spike around June 7th due to the presence of many patterns by Elena Nodel, and a small spike in cardigans when Knitty debuted.

Solids and semi-solids continued to dominate, with semi-solids the clear winner this time around.  Semi-solids were present in Ashore with Friends, patterns associated with the Plucky Knitter, and in Knitty, so this dominance is unsurprising.  There was a small decline in 3+ color projects, a slight rise in 2 color projects and variegated at the end of the month, and stability in tweeds and self-striping yarns.

Model types also remained relatively constant, with a sharp dip in modeled garment coinciding with a rise in flat garments around the 10th of June. This doesn't seem to be attached to any publication or promotion, nor does it follow our hypothesis of lower modeled counts on the weekend.  There was also a drop in modeled/rise in flat at the end of the session.  Dressforms had a small spike around the 12th, also organically.

Fabric type saw a continued rise in lace over the month, even though there were several sharp organic drops throughout the time.  It had a steady presence both organically and in the publications of the time period.  There was also a slight rise in colorwork with several spikes towards the end.  Cables, though continuing to maintain a low profile during the summer months, had a slight rise.  Colorwork remained steady and stockinette, after starting high and with a big presence in Ashore with Friends, dropped slightly over the month. 

Color was as widely variable as ever during this time, but was relatively constant overall.  There were major spikes in blue, red, and green during Knitty First Fall, and blue continued to be a major player throughout.  Red and green both rose over the month, as did yellow and purple.  Grey and white fell, and black, though remaining low, did climb slightly.  This does raise the question of whether we do indeed favor bright colors during the summer months, or whether instead those colors are already pre-selected by the mood board and yarn support process of larger publications. 

Overall, while there were some large publications that debuted during this time, quite a lot of the changes that occurred were the result of organic searches and results.  It will be interesting to see if there is a marked difference between the two sources of traffic over time.  What do you think will occur?